Signals for Kalshi's BTC 15-minute market — with the record to check

Kalshi lists a Bitcoin contract, KXBTC15M, that settles every 15 minutes. Each window works like this:

• A target is set when the window opens — the average of the official Bitcoin reference index (BRTI) over the 60 seconds before the window starts.
• The contract asks one question: will the same 60-second average, taken just before the window closes, land above or below that target?
• UP and DOWN contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢ during the window. The winning side pays $1; the losing side pays nothing.

New to these contracts? The beginner guide walks through them in plain English, and the fee calculator shows what Kalshi's fee does to the maths at each price.

QuarterLine watches every 15-minute window and issues at most one call per window — a "lock". A lock carries everything a member needs to judge it:

• The call: UP or DOWN, with the entry price the system locked at (for example, "enter at 85¢ or below").
• The model's read: an estimated probability and a strength label (WEAK, MODERATE, or STRONG).
• A fixed exit plan: sell at entry +13¢ (never above 95¢) if the market offers it, otherwise hold to settlement. No stop-loss under the current rules.

Most windows produce no lock at all. If the read is not strong enough for the time remaining, or the price on offer is above the 85¢ cap, the system sits out — and the sit-out is the signal working as designed, not a missed call.

• Distance, scaled. The system measures how far the live Bitcoin price sits from the window's target, scaled by current volatility and the seconds left — a "cushion". A bigger cushion means the closing average has further to travel to flip the result.
• Tiered gates. The cushion required to lock falls as the window runs down: early in a window the read must be very strong; near the close, less so. The model's probability comes from the same measurement, so the read and the gate can never quietly disagree.
• Price discipline. The system never locks above 85¢ at any strength. An expensive contract needs to win almost every time just to break even after fees — the cap is the payout rule: bigger payouts on less risk beat risking more for a few cents.
• One lock, frozen. When every gate passes, the lock is frozen with its price, probability and strength. It is never edited afterwards.

PAST GRADED EXAMPLE — from the public record, not a live call.

Every lock — this one, the wins, and the losses — is on the public record page and in the record data table. Nothing is backfilled and nothing is removed.

• Settlement decides. A lock wins if its called side matches Kalshi's official settlement for that window. Not opinion, not a screenshot — the exchange's own result.
• Append-only. Graded locks are never edited or deleted. Windows that never locked stay sit-outs forever.
• Rule versions are labelled. The rules have been revised over time; each lock stays frozen under the version that produced it, and the record shows the split instead of pooling eras silently.

Figures as of November 13, 2026 (2026-11-13), from the live public record. The win rate counts direction called correctly; it is not a profit figure — the price paid decides that, which is why every lock is published with its entry price.

Every plan is the same full access — the live view and the full record: Day $15 · Week $30 · Month $60 · Year $600. Founding Monthly is $45/month for the first 50 members, locked while the membership stays active. Full details on the pricing page.

Before paying anything, you can watch the live view free for 24 hours: create an account, pass a short six-question quiz about how the market and the risks work, and the trial starts — no card required. The quiz is the point: nobody should trade these contracts on a signal they don't understand.

Or start with the free follow: the QuarterLine record channel on Telegram posts every graded result after settlement — no account, no card.

Start free — one free day See the record data